Will animation companies still exist in five years' time?

This article is not about artificial intelligence. Well, most of it isn’t.

You’ve probably read a ton of AI catastrophe-porn; predictions of the end for directors, storyboard artists, creatives... perhaps all of humanity. But, sadly, the animation industry is under threat for other reasons as well.

After a short-lived bump during Covid, animation for advertising has declined and now faces a trifecta of challenges.

Inherently, animation works brilliantly for advertising. After all, it enables us to create the fantastical (which is great for jaded consumers' eyeballs) and it allows us to create a distinctive visual world (which is great for brand-building). But, after a short-lived bump during Covid, when live-action shooting was restricted, animation for advertising has declined and now faces a trifecta of challenges that pose an existential threat. 

Above: Chipotle's Back to the Start, from 2011. A masterpiece of emotional filmmaking, told using animation. 

Firstly, marketers and their agencies want everything faster, and animation takes time. Secondly, marketers and their agencies want everything cheaper, and animation costs money. And thirdly, AI. Yes, sorry. AI. Few ads are more iconic than Chipotle’s Cannes Grand Prix-winning 2011 film Back to the Start; two minutes of beautifully sensitive animated storytelling from Nexus, accompanied by Willie Nelson’s haunting rendition of Coldplay's The Scientist. 

It doesn’t take a genius to see it’s getting harder, and therefore more expensive, to reach people.

Chipotle’s 2021 commercial was written to the exact same brief, but it’s an embarrassingly anaemic shadow of the original. And it’s live-action (with only medium-level production values). So, why did Chipotle move away from animation*? Cost was almost certainly a factor. The top-rated non-football show on US television so far this year is NCIS, with 10 million viewers. Twenty years ago, American Idol had 38 million viewers. Forty years ago, M*A*S*H had 106 million viewers. It doesn’t take a genius to see it’s getting harder, and therefore more expensive, to reach people. 

Another clue is that Chipotle’s 2021 ad is only 60 seconds long. Which is almost generous nowadays, with advertisers increasingly turning to 15- and 10-second formats.  Chipotle is being forced to spend more on media, which means it is desperate to cut costs on production. And animation isn’t cheap. Especially in an era when brands are having to produce more and more content. 

[*Chipotle actually commissioned another animated spot in 2021, A Future Begins; shots editorial team]

Above: Chipotle's 2021 spot, in which a boy eats a burrito and delivers a laundry list of proof-points. 

Back in 2011, when Back to the Start was created, TikTok didn’t exist, Instagram Stories didn’t exist, and video advertising on Facebook and YouTube was in its infancy. Chipotle, as far as I know, produced only one film that year, and another came in 2013 (a second classic – The Scarecrow). Could you imagine a brand the size of Chipotle producing just one solitary film in the year 2023? It’s unthinkable. 

In a world where brand-building (one of animation’s great strengths) has become less popular, there just isn’t time for animation.  

Indeed if you go to Chipotle’s social channels you will see they are brimming with video content. All of it cheaply produced, and none of it animation. We’re willing to bet some pretty big bucks that the vast majority of this content was turned around quickly. And that just can’t happen with animation. Typically, you’re looking at many weeks for cel animation, many more for CGI. Whereas live-action can be turned around in a week. Even less. 

There are creatives shooting content on their phones nowadays, at their own desk or in some tiny corner of their ad agency, which major brands are happy to feature on their social channels. In a world where brand-building (one of animation’s great strengths) has become less popular, and advertisers are pumping out 10, 50 or even 100 films a year – Holy heck! We need a video to celebrate national quesadilla day next Tuesday – there just isn’t time for animation.